Dollar Index Breaks Out To 13-Year High – Probably Safe To Fade

Post-Trump victory, the Treasury yield curve has moved up as well as steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 47 basis points to 2.34 percent.  Yields have risen one full point since the July 6th all-time low of 1.34 percent. Inflation … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016.  Change is week-over-week.  (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued

GLD Cash-Secured Put – Willing To Go Long Near Support

Spot gold potentially had an important session on Tuesday.  Since the May 2nd high of $1,306/ounce through Tuesday’s hammer low, the metal gave back eight percent, in the process losing its now-declining 50-day moving average. The Tuesday low likely came … Continued

Decent Odds Of Rally Near-Term So Long As S&P 500 Does Not Lose 2040

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls are putting down their foot, and have near-term momentum on their side so long as 2040 on the S&P 500 is not lost. Off the April 20th high through last Thursday’s intra-day low, the S&P 500 lost four … Continued

Spot Gold Clinging On To Recent Breakout

There is a lot of excitement among non-commercial futures traders about spot gold’s prospects.  In the 12 weeks since February 9th through May 3rd, they nearly tripled net longs in gold futures – from 98,428 to 271,648 contracts – to … Continued

Spot Gold Looks Tired – GLD Weekly Naked Call For Premium

In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts.  This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1).  The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Near-Term Path Uncertain, But Outlook Cloudy Medium- To Long-Term

For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December.  Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent.  December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued