Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 509.5k, up 40.4k. Bond bulls have an opportunity. Remains to be seen if they can cash in on it. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.96 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 500.1k, up 144.8k. Minutes for the June 12-13 FOMC meeting were released last Thursday. The Fed raised interest rates in that meeting. This was … Continued
It is increasingly getting difficult to discern if US markets are in risk-on or risk-off mode. There is a bid under the long end of the sovereign bond market. This in general is a risk-off behavior. Both the S&P 500 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued