Markets are acting very fidgety. Emerging ones are no exception. On Monday, off Friday’s intra-day high, VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, dropped 16-percent plus. Yesterday, at one point it was up 17-percent plus. TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury … Continued
After a three-month 17-percent drop, EEM, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF, looks ripe for an options trade. On May 22, 2013, Ben Bernanke, then-Fed chair, suggested that the Fed would begin tapering back nearly $70 billion in monthly purchases of … Continued
Another down week for gold – fifth in a row! Last Friday’s action in the meantime points to potential relief ahead – at least near-term. At one point when the metal made a weekly low on Friday, it was down … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After the June FOMC minutes were released, investors pushed back expectations for the first interest rate hike to March next year. The minutes … Continued
Of late, equity bulls have pulled in their horns. Just a tad. Will they be rewarded for their steadfast bullishness in the near-term? Investors Intelligence’s survey of bulls this week registered at 44.8 percent. This was the sixth sub-50 reading … Continued
The saga of listless velocity of money continues in the U.S. The M2 money supply (seasonally adjusted) stood at $11.9 trillion in April, up from $8.4 trillion in June 2009 – an increase of $3.5 trillion. Between 2Q09 and 1Q15, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation. … Continued
Sideways move in stocks – just a pause or sign of fatigue after six-year run? Several different measures point to gradual buildup in complacency over the years Human nature not to want to leave party early, which is fine unless … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued