One look at Chart 1, and U.S. equity bulls may have a reason to salivate. Or not. It can be a reason to worry as well. NYSE Group short interest is through the roof. Literally. By the end of September, … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
The third-quarter earnings season begins in a couple of weeks. Leading into this, operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have continued to come under pressure (Chart 1), with 2015 now standing at $111.08, which will be down 1.7 percent … Continued
Volatility has been the name of the game in stocks in the past month. Between the August 18th intra-day high of $209.59 and the August 24th intra-day low of $181.46, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost north of 13 … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued
Of late, volatility has been volatile. Twice in the past 15 sessions, VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, has surpassed 16, only to quickly reverse to the downside, and broken below 12 three times, only to reverse to the upside. … Continued
An options trade may be brewing on IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF. In the July 15-31 period, shorts’ bearish bet on IWM paid off. Short interest went up nearly five percent during the period. The ETF fell 2.1 percent, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued
U.S. small-caps have been through a lot in recent months. Chart 1 says it all. Will that change following Tuesday’s huge reversal? Since the Russell 2000 Index (1224.6) broke the mid-October 2014 trend line toward the end of April, it … Continued