CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 10k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets dropped $31.4 billion from record $8.7 trillion a week ago. In early March … Continued

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Close To Forming Reversal Candles In Nov.; Bulls’ Mettle Will Be Tested At Nearby Support

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 294.1k, up 26.8k. Minutes for the FOMC meeting on November 2-3 will be out next Wednesday. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed … Continued

S&P 500’s Divergence With Historically Reliable Metrics Possibly Caused By Fed’s Bond-Buying Program, Which Is Being Tapered

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued

Amidst New Highs, Spinning Top Shows Up On S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Last Fri – Volatility Itching To Perk Up

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued

Markit expects Dec U.S. private payroll growth of sub-200k; oil to blame?

posted in: Economy | 0

Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued

Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued

Bulls have opportunity to squeeze shorts near-term, can they deliver?

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Shorts added to already-elevated positions on time to take advantage of latest decline in equities Indices in gross oversold conditions, giving bulls opportunity to try to squeeze shorts If shorts resist these pressures well, that signals rockier time ahead for … Continued

Why are markets failing to rally on dovish Fed message?

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Equities | 0

Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued