Having Rallied To Right Underneath Jan ‘15 Resistance, TLT Looks Tired N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year.  This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued

Markets Not Worried About Inflation Intermediate-Term, They Are Probably Right

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Federal Reserve would like some inflation.  In fact, every major central bank would.  Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued

TLT Weekly Short Put — Willing To Go Long Near Three-Year Support

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike.  On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 20, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At the press conference following the ECB meeting on Thursday, when asked by a WSJ reporter as to why the bank is fighting … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 13, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Central bankers were probably busy scratching their heads this week.  Despite trillions in quantitative easing and their valiant effort to push inflation above … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued

Weekly Naked Call On TLT That Has Fatigue Written All Over It

By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1).  Turns out it was the right thing to do.  By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes!  Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week!  Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued