The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate. The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short. What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued
From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent. Not much in a big scheme of things. It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 302.1k, down 43.1k. Rising asset prices were once again a talk of the Fed town. On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, … Continued
Dips continue to get bought, even as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index, bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago. Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended … Continued
Wednesday witnessed several potentially important developments in the markets, but the message is not clear-cut. After straddling the 50-day moving average for nearly three weeks, the S&P 500 large cap index lost it yesterday, albeit not by much. This was … Continued
Monday marked a history of sorts. All four major equity indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite and the Russell 2000 small cap index – broke out to fresh new highs. The last time this … Continued
In its rather brief history going back to January 1990, out of 6,725 sessions, there have only been 10 times when spot VIX jumped 40 percent or higher in a single session. That is how rare it is! Last Friday … Continued