Bonds and stocks diverged for a couple of months before beginning to move hand in hand this month. The former is not buying the enthusiasm shown by the latter. The 10-year T-yield currently sits at decade-old support. A breakdown will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 233.4k, down 619. The rally in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.63 percent) from July 2016, when rates bottomed at 1.34 percent, ended last October … Continued
Corporate buybacks were the savior last year, even as investors took cash out of equities and foreigners reduced exposure to US stocks. The status quo needs to change. Bulls cannot continue betting on continued buyback momentum. On a 12-month rolling … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 26, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government. After the government reopened, it published one … Continued
US stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent. This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent. Conditions are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 19, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. The CFTC expects … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 1-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Shorts continued to cut back. From the Boxing Day bottom through the high Monday, XLB … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 12, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. The CFTC expects … Continued
The sharp decline in US stocks last October-December forced the Fed to do a 360 as relates to its campaign to tighten monetary policy. The dovish shift apparently wants to unleash animal spirits. Investors have obliged – thus far. Will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 5, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. The CFTC expects … Continued