It is increasingly getting difficult to discern if US markets are in risk-on or risk-off mode. There is a bid under the long end of the sovereign bond market. This in general is a risk-off behavior. Both the S&P 500 … Continued
The US dollar index is at an interesting juncture. The peak in January coincided with a 61.8-percent retracement of the 41.2–percent decline between July 2001 and April 2008. Right now, it has essentially gone sideways the past five weeks, unable … Continued
In 1Q18, S&P 500 companies reported $36.54 in operating earnings, up 26.8 percent year-over-year and eight percent quarter-over-quarter. This was non-GAAP. GAAP was up 20.3 percent y/y and 22.5 percent q/q to $33.02. Apart from being a record quarter, 1Q18 … Continued
On the weekly chart, SPY remains grossly overbought, but near term there is room to rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Options can help. US core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 1.96 percent year-over-year in May – essentially two percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
US companies are sitting on tons of cash, and are also spending tons in dividends and buybacks. As they continue to pay back shareholders, debt load – rising – moves front and center. S&P 500 buybacks shot up to new … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Monday, XLB (57.83) bounced off the daily lower Bollinger band. The daily chart is oversold. … Continued
Signs of fatigue are showing up in US equities. It began with large-caps, and now there are early signs it is spreading to small-caps as well as tech. The small-cap switch was turned on right after Donald Trump was elected … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued
China’s holdings of Treasury securities fell $5.8 billion month-over-month in April to $1.18 trillion. It remains the largest holder of these securities. In China versus the US, if the current trade spat turns into a trade war, these securities could … Continued