Revised 2Q14 GDP numbers once again revive hopes of capX revival

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The revised 2Q14 GDP numbers last week have rekindled hopes of a corporate capital spending revival in the U.S.  It was the second estimate (preliminary), so there is one more revision to go.  Nevertheless, several inputs related to corporate spending … Continued

Odds of short squeeze next to nothing in foreseeable future

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

NYSE Composite short interest in the middle of August was essentially unchanged month-over-month at 14.8bn, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 2.4-percent decrease at 8.6bn.  The adjacent chart and the one below show how short interest has been building up … Continued

U.S. sales of new homes yet to catch up with ebullient builder sentiment, Part Two

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The piece yesterday on U.S. housing was based on June’s numbers.  New-home sales data came out yesterday, and it was anything but encouraging.  Year-over-year, sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) rose 12.2 percent but fell 2.4 percent month-over-month.  The latter helps … Continued

U.S. sales of new homes yet to catch up with ebullient builder sentiment

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

There was a lot of excitement last week when housing starts/building permits data were released for July.  Starts surged 15.7 percent month-over-month and 21.7 percent year-over-year to 1.1mn units (seasonally adjusted annual rate).  Multi-family (five units or more) easily outran … Continued

XLF breaks out, likely headed toward $24, if technicals prevail

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

A month ago, we pointed out a divergence between 10- and two-year Treasury yield spread, which peaked as 2013 was unwinding, and financial stocks, which had ceased to track the spread and were rallying.  Going back nearly 18 years, the … Continued

With monetary quiver empty, are central banks ready to add arrows?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee, voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in August, the minutes released yesterday showed.  Market participants were taken by surprise.  They have been conditioned … Continued

If — a big if — these relationships hold, U.S. business capex is set to rise

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

At hedgopia, we try to be as objective as possible.  Currently, this blogger is bearish insofar as U.S. equities and economy are concerned.  Nevertheless, as someone famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind.  What would you do, … Continued

Despite big yawn from bond market, job openings point to continued improvement in non-farm payroll

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

What is going on in the jobs market the past several months is reviving hopes that better days are ahead. There is a lot we can point to in order to validate how anemic the recovery has been post-Great Recession.  … Continued