Major U.S. banks’ 4Q14 earnings results big disappointment Release of reserves built up during crisis years have been big tailwind Financials’ path of least resistance down medium-term, though oversold near-term Investors were genuinely disappointed last week as all four major … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 13 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. Dollar index and E-mini S&P 500 are noticeable. 10-year note: Did non-commercials get squeezed a little this week? By Tuesday, the 10-year yield had dropped … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 6th (Tuesday). Dollar and ten-year notes jump out the most. 10-year note: Substantial net shorts have been built up. In the prior week, large speculators were most short since mid-May … Continued
Rather quick deterioration in momentum in U.S. stocks From sentiment to Greece to $, worrywarts have plenty of things to worry about Next couple of days will be crucial for bulls to step in and try not to let things … Continued
NYSE margin debt only increased $3.3bn in November. The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent in the month. Except for brief ups and downs toward the middle of 2014, margin debt has essentially gone sideways for the first 11 months last … Continued
One of the perplexing things in the current economic cycle has been the suppressed velocity of money. Six years into recovery, velocity has yet to pick up steam. As the chart below shows, excess reserves have gone toe-to-toe with the … Continued
Despite escape-velocity meme, yield curve continues to tighten Message of belly/long end of curve to short-end: be careful what you ask for Financials diverge from 10-2 spread, perhaps setting up as shorting opportunity next month One of the contrarian themes … Continued
10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid. A … Continued
Inability of offensives to take the lead has been a thorn in the side of rally since Oct 15th low Outperformance last week of XLY vs. XLP and HYG vs. LQD sign of trend change? Duel on between seasonally favorable … Continued
Post-November jobs report this morning, we are seeing some weird reaction in the bond market. Two-year yields have gone up more vs. the 10-year. As a result, the curve is flatter. In fact, as shown in the chart, the curve … Continued