Three months. That is all it took for the Fed to do a 360. In the middle of last December, the fed funds rate was raised for the first time in nine years – to still-zero-bound 37 basis points. The … Continued
Back in the middle of December, when the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nine years, the FOMC’s dot plot optimistically forecasted four quarter-point hikes this year. On December 16th – the day the FOMC statement came out … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
CNBC.com ran an interesting story last Thursday (March 3rd) on resurging home flipping in the U.S. Turns out, according to RealtyTrac, nearly 180,000 family homes and condos were flipped in 2015, making up 5.5 percent of all sales. This was … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 1, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Unbelievable! The Japanese government is getting paid to borrow money for a decade. For the first time ever, Japan sells 10-year bonds at … Continued
NYSE margin debt continues to deflate. Right before the 2008/2009 bear market ended, margin debt shrunk to $173.3 billion in February 2009. It then gradually rose. The previous high of $381.4 billion in July 2007 was surpassed in April 2013 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour. Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP). This was totally … Continued
Negative interest rates have been in the headlines for a while now. Since Janet Yellen’s, Fed chair, Congressional testimony last week, it has been doing so with increasing frequency. Does the Fed even have the legal authority to use negative … Continued
The Federal Reserve would like some inflation. In fact, every major central bank would. Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Global GDP will only expand at three percent this year. Says the OECD – the latest body to cut growth forecast this year. … Continued