The sell-side customarily has lowered estimates going into the 2Q earnings season. Stocks have rallied since early June, thanks also to an impending rate cut by the Fed later this month and resumption of trade talks between the US and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.8k, down 48. In the first stare down with markets since his appointment in February last year, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, blinked. In this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
June’s stronger-than-expected payroll print has the potential to change the Fed’s interest-rate outlook for the remainder of the year. Markets still expect at least two 25-basis-point cuts this year, including one later this month. Should Chair Jay Powell wish to … Continued
VIX this week broke two-month support, opening the door to a test of support at 11-12. Meanwhile, the volatility curve – in contango – is approaching a level that in the past coincided with a peak in stocks. With one … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 281.1k, down 121.9k. Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October through the intraday low seven sessions ago of 1.98 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
Gold is regaining its lost luster. Last week, it staged what could turn out to be a major breakout. If genuine, the metal in due course could head toward retracing 61.8 percent of the September 2011-December 2015 decline. Gold ($1,400.10) … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued