In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
December thus far has been uncharacteristically quiet. And that is putting it nicely. U.S. stocks have failed to get seasonal traction this month. So far. There are eight sessions remaining before the year is out. So there is hope. Since … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued
As things stand, it is hard to be bullish on small-caps. As a group, they have been lagging for some time, and act weaker technically than large-caps. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, has more or less been going sideways … Continued
Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
National Federation of Independent Business members’ comp plans jumped three points in November to 20, matching the November 2006 high. The spike in the red line in Chart 1 is noteworthy. Historically, it has shown a tendency to lead average … Continued
Small-caps have a big problem. Investors do not fancy them, and it has been a while. Having peaked last June, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, with at least one false breakout, has lagged its large-cap brethren. There probably are … Continued