As things stand, it is hard to be bullish on small-caps. As a group, they have been lagging for some time, and act weaker technically than large-caps. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, has more or less been going sideways … Continued
Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
National Federation of Independent Business members’ comp plans jumped three points in November to 20, matching the November 2006 high. The spike in the red line in Chart 1 is noteworthy. Historically, it has shown a tendency to lead average … Continued
Small-caps have a big problem. Investors do not fancy them, and it has been a while. Having peaked last June, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, with at least one false breakout, has lagged its large-cap brethren. There probably are … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
In the past year and a half, crude oil has gone through a lot. It is not often a commodity of oil’s significance drops 61 percent in nine months. Yet that is what happened to spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued
It can potentially be a momentous day. December 16th, that is. That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued