Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again.  They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period.  Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week.  Daily indicators are now grossly overbought.  It is also right at … Continued

A peek into future through the futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 3 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield has risen from 1.65 to 1.94 in five sessions.  But it also dropped 52 basis points in January, and that … Continued

A peek into future through the futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 27 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Can we say squeeze?  Since the end of December, net shorts have dropped 59 percent, even as the 10-year yield has collapsed 50 … Continued

Perhaps time to be on lookout for signs of $ reversal

posted in: Currency, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

Technically strong dollar bumping against two-decade-long resistance Trend-following hedge funds’ net longs in dollar index futures highest ever To watch out for: rise in odds of no rate hikes in U.S. and ECB QE disappointment Not a single day goes … Continued

Momentum is breaking down, bulls better step up to the plate

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Rather quick deterioration in momentum in U.S. stocks From sentiment to Greece to $, worrywarts have plenty of things to worry about Next couple of days will be crucial for bulls to step in and try not to let things … Continued

Even as 10-year attracts bids, non-commercials’ net shorts at four-year high

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid.  A … Continued

Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued

Rapid recovery in U.S. home prices probably negating mortgage-rate tailwind

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Solid improvement in U.S. home prices comes with cost Peak bubble home ownership at 69-percent-plus anomaly not average Price weakness in recent months plus mortgage-rate tailwind unable to seriously ignite sales Leading up to the epic housing bubble in the … Continued

Falling trading vol in U.S. bonds can cause problem during times of stress

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

2007/2008 crisis fueled by excessive use of leverage Not much learned from that experience as U.S. debt continues to balloon Consistently falling trading volume can create problem even as primary market has gotten bigger As the chart below shows, we … Continued