Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
Recent inflation readings have firmed up, although remain subdued historically. As have inflation expectations. What happens with crude oil, which rallied big the past couple of years, is worth watching. Later today, the FOMC concludes its two-day meeting – the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.2k, up 19.3k. On February 2, January’s private-sector average hourly earnings were reported, and they rose 2.89 percent year-over-year, to $26.74. This was the … Continued
XLY (SPDR consumer discretionary ETF) saves a potential breakdown – for now, and just in time. On June 5 this year, XLY (89.36) rallied to 92.14, before retreating. Seven weeks later, on July 27, it rallied to 92.55, only to … Continued
The US dollar index, pretty much dancing to its own tune since peaking early this year, likely sits at a crucial level technically. The U.S. economy added stronger-than-expected 222,000 non-farm jobs in June. Friday, the US dollar index pretty much … Continued
Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity. Sort of. Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating. This resistance goes back to … Continued
Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February. The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued
The latest productivity report had observers buzzing more about unit labor costs than output per hour. In 4Q16, unit labor costs jumped at an annual rate of 1.68 percent, up from 0.18 percent in 3Q16. This comes in the wake … Continued
The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent. December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued
There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones. Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued