A P/E of 17x on the S&P 500 large cap index cannot be called euphoric. A little above average, sure, but not euphoric. On forward operating earnings using next year’s estimates, that is what the index is currently trading at. … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders tend to be trend followers, and do a pretty good job of it except at inflection points. Chart 1 plots these traders’ holdings in Russell 2000 mini-index futures (ICE and CME combined) with the cash. The two … Continued
Driven by tax-cut optimism and favorable seasonality, trader/investor sentiment is giddy, but small-caps are not getting their fair share. The latest Investors Intelligence numbers will be out later today, but as of last week, bulls have been 60 percent or … Continued
Even as passage of tax measures in Congress looks like a done deal, 2018 operating earnings estimates for S&P 600 small cap companies are yet to show signs of stability. Post-presidential election in November last year, U.S. small-caps outperformed – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent. Are they sending … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 31, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.7k, down 150.9k. So Jerome Powell, current Fed governor, it is – the next chair. He is supposedly a dove – along the lines … Continued
XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 1-15 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq Since reaching an all-time high of 6477.77 in a spinning … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index does not act well. Is it purely rotation or a reflection on the economy or on the 1Q17 earnings season that begins next week? After rallying for seven consecutive months, the index lost 2.5 percent in … Continued
With five sessions to go in April, the Nasdaq 100 index (4474.19) is down 0.2 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index (1146.69) is up 2.9 percent. Last week made a big difference, as the former was down 1.5 … Continued