Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week. The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued
Gold faced pressure after running into resistance six weeks ago. The subsequent drop cost the metal long-term support at $1,300-plus. Gold bugs were not ready to give in that easy, though. They defended a rising trend line from December 2016. … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (59.33) broke out from a late-January falling trend line, but building … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued