If the Fed moves in September and December, the fed funds rate will be in excess of core inflation. In a leveraged economy, that should begin to bite. The FOMC dot plot expects three more hikes next year. This is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued
Recent inflation readings have firmed up, although remain subdued historically. As have inflation expectations. What happens with crude oil, which rallied big the past couple of years, is worth watching. Later today, the FOMC concludes its two-day meeting – the … Continued
How times have changed? It did not take long for markets’ attention to do a 360 from fears of deflation to that of inflation. January’s consumer price index was reported Wednesday. It was stronger than expected. In the 12 months … Continued
Once again, XLF (SPDR financial ETF) has been denied at resistance that goes back a decade. In December 2015, for the first time since July 2006, the Fed raised the fed funds rate. It was a 25-basis-point increase to a … Continued
Commodities had a nice week last week. After five consecutive weekly losses, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index rallied 4.2 percent last week, but dropped 2.8 percent anyway in June – its sixth straight negative month. Last week’s action is encouraging, but … Continued
The usual middle-of-the-road approach. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is. (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued
The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent. December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued
In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance. It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1). The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued
April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year. This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued