Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion. The recovery has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 8, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 408.6k, down 37k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.97 percent) once again is hammering on three percent. On April 25, yields retreated after rising intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 462.1k, up 90.4k. Now what? The 10-year Treasury rate (2.96) crossed three percent this week – the first time this has happened since January … Continued
After rallies that lasted a little over two weeks, selling began on major US equity indices last week right at important resistance. This likely continues near term. US capacity utilization in March rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.3 percent year-over-year … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell … Continued