Russell 2000’s 250-Point Jump Over 6 Sessions Met With Selling At Potentially Important Technical Level; July Margin Debt Will Be Telling

The Russell 2000’s 250-point surge over six sessions took many by surprise, not the least of which are those who were on the shorting side. This also comes at a time of probable economic deceleration ahead and a question mark … Continued

Unless Bond Bears Get Motivated By Budget Deficit/Federal Debt/Interest Payments, Bulls Could Find Rally In 10-Year Yields Tempting

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 10-year T-yield just poked its head out of 4.30s resistance. Economic data in recent weeks have come in much stronger than expected. Although it is hard to argue the rally in rates will have staying power – unless, of … Continued

Mid- And Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps From Oct ’22 Lows, But Neck And Neck From ’23 Lows; Mid-Caps At Crucial Juncture Technically

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued

Russell 2000 Wins Back 1800, But Too Soon To Declare Trend Change Given Fed’s Battle With Inflation And Resolve To Hurt Economy If Needed

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

After many attempts, the Russell 2000 won back 1800 last week. But it is too soon to declare a trend change. A bigger hurdle lies at 1900. The Fed is as determined as ever to cool inflation and hurt the … Continued

Near-Term, In FOMC Week, Reduced Volatility Likely To Help Equity Bulls; Medium- To Long-Term, No Fed Pivot Forthcoming

Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued

Week Could Be Volatile, But Stocks Likely Will Try To Pick Up Where They Left Off Last Week

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Ahead of a crucial week in which the FOMC meets and the top six US companies report, large-cap equity indices broke out to new highs last week. The knock on this is that rangebound small-caps are yet to achieve that … Continued

SPY Shorts With M/T Focus Have Option To Sell Weekly Puts

Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week.  They have the ball near term.  Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong.  The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued

Amid Signs Of Fatigue, Potentially Bullish ‘What If’ For US Stocks

Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87.  The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued