June U.S. auto sales 17.1mn units, preceded by cycle high of 17.7mn in May Auto loans nearing $1tn; sharp rise since 3Q10; non-revolving consumer credit $2.5tn Potential problems in autos: extension of average maturity and rise in average amount financed … Continued
The other day, Goldman Sachs took a sharp knife to its earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. It cut 2015 estimates from previous $122 to $114. In 2014, these companies earned $113 in operating earnings. If Goldman is right, we … Continued
We are in uncharted territory! On so many levels. As you will see in the charts below, many valuation metrics are stretched. The nation’s debt load just rose to a new high. At 1Q15, the total credit market debt outstanding … Continued
U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued
2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
The saga of listless velocity of money continues in the U.S. The M2 money supply (seasonally adjusted) stood at $11.9 trillion in April, up from $8.4 trillion in June 2009 – an increase of $3.5 trillion. Between 2Q09 and 1Q15, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 12, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, the 10-year yield had a lackluster week – essentially flat. Nothing could be further from … Continued