With Fresh Highs, Indices Getting Extended, But Momentum With Bulls – Their Ball To Lose

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The sell-side customarily has lowered estimates going into the 2Q earnings season.  Stocks have rallied since early June, thanks also to an impending rate cut by the Fed later this month and resumption of trade talks between the US and … Continued

Major US Equity Indices Oversold – On Lookout For Reversal Signal

From trade disputes to declining corporate profits to yield-curve inversion, there is no shortage of issues for worrywarts to worry about.  From recent highs, major US equity indices have dropped in the mid- to high-single digits.  Medium term, more downside … Continued

Having Rallied Huge For 3 Months, Stocks Likely To Get Reality Check Ahead

Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data.  By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this.  Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued

Bulls, Bears Likely Lock Horns Around 2600 On S&P 500 Next

It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October.  The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term.  This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued

Odds Growing Sharp Reflex Rally In S&P 500 Sooner Than Later

From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent.  Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath.  Several indicators are at/near panic levels.  Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street.  … Continued

Bears Have Momo, But Need Extra To Break 2600 on S&P 500 In Next Several Sessions

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions.  Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800.  The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent.  Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued