SPY Once Again Rejected At Channel Resistance – More Downside Likely Ahead

SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26.  The path of least resistance is down.  A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation.  On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued

Amid Signs Of Fatigue, Potentially Bullish ‘What If’ For US Stocks

Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87.  The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy.  This … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued

S&P 500 Breaks Out Of 2800, One More Hurdle Before Late-January High Is Tested

As 2Q earnings season got underway, the S&P 500 large cap index broke out of 2800.  If it were to rally toward its late-January all-time high, it has to first win over resistance around 2840. The S&P 500 (2809.55) faced … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued