Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the January 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.42) shorts gave up as the ETF continued higher, rising to a new all-time … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Yes, foreigners’ … Continued
Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying. Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued
U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
As of Monday this month, XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) is down 6.3 percent. This followed a 6.6-percent rally in January. Since early September last year through last week’s high of $30.33, it jumped 27.5 percent. Both the weekly and … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
Having stopped responding to improving U.S. fundamentals, the US dollar index currently sits at a confluence of technical support. The U.S. economy in recent quarters has put up strong numbers. Real GDP in 4Q17 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued
U.S. equity bulls supposedly got the green signal from the January effect, which postulates that as goes January so goes the year. The S&P 500 large cap index was up a strong 5.6 percent in the first month of the … Continued
U.S. consumers are alive and well. There is both good and bad in this – good now but potentially bad down the road. Consumer spending in December rose 0.4 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $13.7 trillion. … Continued