The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Today is jobs day. At 8:30 later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the report card for September. A monthly ritual that markets more often than not await with abated breath. Particularly so this time around as the … Continued
Do non-commercials have it right? Their net shorts in Russell 2000 futures peaked at 46,064 contracts on August 18, a week before stocks, including small-caps, bottomed. Since then, they have gradually been reducing their bearish bias, with holdings at -27,708 … Continued
With all the hand-wringing over whether or not the August lows will hold, this is the least of bulls’ worries. Bigger challenges probably lie ahead. Of the big four – the S&P 500 index, the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq composite, … Continued
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued
The third-quarter earnings season begins in a couple of weeks. Leading into this, operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have continued to come under pressure (Chart 1), with 2015 now standing at $111.08, which will be down 1.7 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, post-FOMC decision not to hike, stocks fell. They had rallied strongly into the meeting, and were probably set to drop either … Continued
Relatively speaking, U.S. housing is going strong, with price being the major risk. Monthly data tend to be volatile. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate in August, sales of existing homes dropped 4.8 percent month-over-month to 5.31 million units, even … Continued
The August swoon in U.S. stocks felt like it came out of nowhere, but it was slowly in the making. The S&P 500 index (1939) peaked in May at 2135, with sideways action since February this year… NYSE margin debt … Continued
Last week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met, market participants were divided as to whether or not the Fed would raise rates. Most economists expected a hike, as did the short end of the yield curve; two-year Treasury … Continued