Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm. This … Continued
Several asset classes are at crucial juncture. Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate crude rallied to $51.88 before closing at $51.15, up 0.2 percent (Chart 1). The session produced a long-legged doji, took out now-slightly-declining 50-day moving average intraday but closed the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year. … Continued
After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias. In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher. Are they right? Since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up. The US dollar index down. Ten-year Treasury yields down. This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance this year bolted out of the blocks in a strong fashion. In January and February, issuance totaled $296.9 billion, versus $252 billion in the corresponding period last year. High-yield, in particular, has had impressive issuance – … Continued
The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate. This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued