In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance. It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1). The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued
With 11 months gone, 2016 corporate bond issuance is up 0.8 percent year-over-year to $1.45 trillion. Of this, investment-grade is up 4.7 percent to $1.24 trillion, while high-yield shrunk 17.1 percent to $214.1 billion. This is based on the actual … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 3.4 percent month-over-month in October to $484 billion; the S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent in that month. Debt rose 6.3 percent in September to a 15-month high $501.1 billion. Margin debt peaked at $507.2 billion in … Continued
Since the U.S. presidential election through the intra-day high last Thursday, 10-year T-yields jumped 63 basis points, and two-year yields 27 basis points. From the July 6 all-time low of 1.34 percent, 10-year yields surged 115 basis points. Riding on … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued
Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance. Has truth in it. For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate. As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it. Of course, all … Continued
U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs. This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices. Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation. The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued