Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012. In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued
U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units. This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1). Sales had been flat for over a … Continued
Back in the week ended July 5 this year, non-commercials enthusiastically held 315,963 net longs in gold futures. That was an all-time high. These traders had been aggressively building positions since the week ended December 1 last year, when net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued
In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance. It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1). The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued
With 11 months gone, 2016 corporate bond issuance is up 0.8 percent year-over-year to $1.45 trillion. Of this, investment-grade is up 4.7 percent to $1.24 trillion, while high-yield shrunk 17.1 percent to $214.1 billion. This is based on the actual … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 3.4 percent month-over-month in October to $484 billion; the S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent in that month. Debt rose 6.3 percent in September to a 15-month high $501.1 billion. Margin debt peaked at $507.2 billion in … Continued
Since the U.S. presidential election through the intra-day high last Thursday, 10-year T-yields jumped 63 basis points, and two-year yields 27 basis points. From the July 6 all-time low of 1.34 percent, 10-year yields surged 115 basis points. Riding on … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued