On September 27, the White House unveiled its proposal for changes to the tax code, which would drop the corporate rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. For individuals, the top tax bracket drops from nearly 40 percent to 35 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week. The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued
The financial accounts of the U.S. for 2Q17 was published last Thursday. Better known as the Z.1 report, the massive quarterly publication contains tons of useful data – thus highly recommended. The seven charts below try to highlight where things … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 19, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 270.1k, up 18.4k. Americans’ love for leverage needs no elaboration. The debt culture began in earnest in the early ’80s. Leverage remains high – … Continued
Rates are rising – probably not enough to seriously hurt sectors such as housing, but will in due course if the momentum continues. In merely nine sessions, 10-year Treasury yields have gone up by 24 basis points to 2.28 percent, … Continued
It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react? The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 12, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 251.7k, up 29.9k. The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins Tuesday. A press conference by Janet Yellen, Fed chair, is scheduled for Wednesday. After this, there … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 5, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 221.8k, down 61.9k. Last week, 2Q17 real GDP growth was revised higher to three percent – much better than the post-Great Recession average of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 29, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 283.7k, up 22.5k. Hurricane Harvey may have given the Fed an excuse not to hike come December. At least that is how markets are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued