The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent. This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992. That is how far back one has to go in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Chart 1 in yesterday’s post drew many e-mail responses, some of which were critical. Critical because the post used a trailing price to earnings (P/E) for the S&P 500 index, rather than forward. To refresh, the chart used a four-quarter … Continued
Many times in the past spot VIX spikes, but cannot hang on to the gains and reverses quickly. Chart 1 only goes back eight months, but this phenomenon goes back a lot longer. VIX just experienced one such spike reversal. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 7, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Bank of Korea on Thursday eased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1.25 percent. The move … Continued
The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 31, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 14-15, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fourth meeting, and there will be four more left after this (July 26-27, … Continued