Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued
Large- and small-cap divergence continues. Versus the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Large-caps continue to fall behind small-caps. Not to mention tech. The S&P 500 large cap index was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index finally breaks out of a box. Further building on it near term may prove difficult as the options market indicates investor sentiment is sanguine right now. S&P 500 stocks made progress last week. After … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 5, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 397.5k, down 73.5k. The FOMC meets next week. It is this year’s fourth meeting, and four more remain after this. The fed funds rate … Continued
Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) closed at $273.60 last Friday. It is a decision time as relates to the double calendar spread hypothetically initiated last week. The spread – short June 1 273 call/long June 8 273 call/short June 1 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued