Nasdaq 100 Breakout Fri Follows In Small-Caps’ Footsteps – Large-Caps Next, Or Not?

Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th.  This was followed by … Continued

SPY Stuck Within Box Last 2 Weeks – Double Calendar Spread For Theta Capture

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory.  Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued

Dec ’16 Trend Line Defended – Decent Odds Gold Recaptures Broken Support

Gold faced pressure after running into resistance six weeks ago.  The subsequent drop cost the metal long-term support at $1,300-plus.  Gold bugs were not ready to give in that easy, though.  They defended a rising trend line from December 2016.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Last Week Retreats From Crucial Level – Action This Week Could Be Telling

The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.  This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion.  The recovery has been … Continued

US Stocks Beginning To Reflect Elevated Optimism Near Term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 just broke out of trend-line resistance from late January, and apparently spent tons of energy in doing so.  Near-term, the options market is reflecting elevated optimism.  Unwinding is likely. US stocks enjoyed a nice rally in the … Continued

Small-Caps Act Strong – On Verge of Major Breakout Or Triple Top?

There are some interesting dynamics in play in the small-cap sector – encompassing both fundamentals and technicals. Post-tax cuts of last December, earnings estimates were sharply revised higher.  The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law … Continued