Post-February 9 reversal, both the Nasdaq composite and the Nasdaq 100 index went on to surpass the late January highs. Other indices such as the S&P 500 large cap index and the Dow Industrials could not match that feat. The … Continued
Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 90.8k. Once again, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from important resistance. Caught in a three-decade-old descending channel, the 10-year rate came very … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.2k, up 19.3k. On February 2, January’s private-sector average hourly earnings were reported, and they rose 2.89 percent year-over-year, to $26.74. This was the … Continued
There was non-confirmation between the spike in VIX a month ago and U.S. high-yield spreads. Depending on which one is sending the right signal will have consequences for whether or not 15-16 support on VIX holds. On February 6, spot … Continued
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda! What could have been $9.93 in profit in a hypothetical XLE trade is now only worth $1.83. Culprit? Trying to play it too cute plus greed. Since peaking on January 25 at $66.66/barrel, spot West Texas Intermediate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.5k, down 82.5k. Three percent on the 10-year Treasury note is a closely watched level by many. If it is surpassed, stops likely get … Continued
After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued