On major U.S. equity indices, buyers stepped up to the plate just where they needed to. Can they sustain it? From peak to trough, after reaching an all-time high on March 1 (2400.98), the S&P 500 large cap index shed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued
Wednesday witnessed several potentially important developments in the markets, but the message is not clear-cut. After straddling the 50-day moving average for nearly three weeks, the S&P 500 large cap index lost it yesterday, albeit not by much. This was … Continued
Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity. Sort of. Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating. This resistance goes back to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm. This … Continued
Down 5.6 percent from intraday peak to trough in 19 sessions, and then up 4.1 percent from low to high in five. The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to play ping pong between range support and resistance. Last Friday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year. … Continued
After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias. In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher. Are they right? Since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued
After weeks of staying subdued, there was some spring in volatility’s feet this week. Will it last or peter out as has been the case for the umpteenth time post-election? Tuesday’s 10-percent rally in spot VIX (12.81) was the largest … Continued