Later today at 1:15 PM, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, speaks at Harvard University. Markets will be on pins and needles waiting to hear what she will say. She is appearing in public in the wake of several hawkish comments/speeches from … Continued
U.S. equities had a powerful session on Tuesday, followed by another good session on Wednesday. Volume could have been a little better on major U.S. indices but price spoke loud and clear. The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.1 percent on Tuesday, … Continued
Tomorrow, April’s new home sales come out. March was down 1.5 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 units. The cycle peaked at 545,000 units in February last year – a seven-year high. The median price in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 17, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Last week, three regional bank presidents – Eric Rosengren (Boston), Loretta Mester (Cleveland), and Esther George (Kansas City) – … Continued
Today completes one year since the S&P 500 large cap index made an all time high of 2134.72. On this anniversary, U.S. stocks’ near-term outlook is not as clear as is probably its medium-term. In the medium term, major indices … Continued
U.S. housing is stuck. That is pretty much the impression one gets looking at April’s housing starts that were out yesterday. Starts rose 6.6 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million units. The cycle high 1.21 … Continued
April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year. This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued
A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll. As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 10, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three FOMC voting members were on full jawboning mode on Thursday. Eric Rosengren, Boston Fed president, said markets are underestimating the likelihood of … Continued
In all five sessions last week, spot VIX got rejected at 16.50, which at the time also approximated the upper Bollinger Band. This is not any plain-vanilla resistance. It goes back two decades. More often than not, once VIX convincingly … Continued