Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued
Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end. For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month. Consensus was for that … Continued
Margin debt jumps $20bn in Feb to nearly match all-time high a year ago Interesting, tight correlation between margin debt and U.S. banks’ C&I loans Rise in inventories-to-sales ratio probably suggests imminent slowdown in C&I loans NYSE margin debt shot … Continued
Ratio of personal interest income to payments declines for three years now Persistent rise in number of 65 years and over who are employed Suppressed rates past six years no good news for seniors In his inaugural blog post on Tuesday, … Continued
U.S. corporate profits down in 2014, but not S&P 500 earnings Since ’46, corporate profits have only dropped 4 times during expansion Twice since 1989, corporate profits fell but not SPX earnings, latter fell following year U.S. corporate profits were down … Continued
Share of U.S. corporate profits in national income barely off all-time highs Share of software plus R&D in U.S. private fixed investment falling since 2009 As good a hint as any for corporates to send current margins unsustainable long term? … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator. Net shorts went up 67 … Continued
Semi rout after months of decline in orders for business capX proxy From INTC to TSM to SNDK, semi heavyweights pointing out biz slowdown SMH shorts stand no chance until longs are bothered by worsening earnings scene It is not … Continued
Last six years, U.S. high-yield bond issuance of $1.6tn This week, several Fed officials signal imminent rate hike this year Junk bonds – popular risk-on vehicle – not likely to take kindly to end of ZIRP A week ago, HYG, … Continued