The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued
In the second-quarter advance estimate for U.S. GDP released yesterday, one of the things that jumped out was the level of inventories. Private businesses accumulated $124 billion in nominal inventories. In 1Q15, these were $127.3 billion (Chart 1); 1Q15 was … Continued
On Monday, I laid out as to why TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, may be stuck in limbo in the near-term between 50- and 200-day moving averages and why the latter is likely to act as resistance. … Continued
There is a dichotomy between U.S. sales of new and existing homes. This has been preceded by a dichotomy between how their median prices were diverging from each other. June saw existing homes jump to a seasonally adjusted annual rate … Continued
Last week, non-commercials went net long 10-year note futures for the first time since September 2014. For reference, they were net short north of 183,000 contracts as early as early May and 261,000-plus at the end of last December (Chart … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 21, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Is global growth slowing? The ongoing slump in commodities seems to suggest that. In this scenario, it would make sense for investors to … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance is on track for yet another record year this year. In the first half, issuance totaled $877.7 billion, comprised of $697.8 billion in investment-grade and $179.9 billion in high-yield. Annualized, both categories, as well as the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her mid-week Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reiterated her desire to hike interest rates later this year, if data cooperate. On … Continued
It has been a long wait… yet it keeps eluding. Six years into the current expansion, U.S. wages are yet to pick up speed. Yes, companies ranging from Wal-Mart (WMT) to Aetna (AET) to Starbucks (SBUX) to Target (TGT) have … Continued
June U.S. auto sales 17.1mn units, preceded by cycle high of 17.7mn in May Auto loans nearing $1tn; sharp rise since 3Q10; non-revolving consumer credit $2.5tn Potential problems in autos: extension of average maturity and rise in average amount financed … Continued