In 2016, the so-called January barometer – the hypothesis that the first month sets the tone for the year – failed to deliver. The S&P 500 large cap index lost 5.1 percent last January, and was down 10.1 percent by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year. Two … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the December 1-15 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq – short interest ↓ 2% p/p; Nasdaq composite ↑ 2.5% … Continued
U.S. small-caps have had a phenomenal run post-election. From November 8 close through the intra-day all-time high 1392.71 on December 9, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped 16.5 percent. It has come under slight pressure since that high, but … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012. In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued
U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units. This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1). Sales had been flat for over a … Continued
Notice the plateauing to slightly rising red line in Chart 1? In the middle of January this year, 2017 operating earnings estimates of S&P 500 companies were started out at $141.11. At the time, 2016 estimates were just north of … Continued
Back in the week ended July 5 this year, non-commercials enthusiastically held 315,963 net longs in gold futures. That was an all-time high. These traders had been aggressively building positions since the week ended December 1 last year, when net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued
Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d. This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued