Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 509.5k, up 40.4k. Bond bulls have an opportunity. Remains to be seen if they can cash in on it. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.96 … Continued
There are some early signs markets are undergoing a subtle change – particularly as relates to the dynamics between small- and large-caps. Right after Donald Trump was elected US president on November 8, 2016, small-caps became one of the go-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
Signs of fatigue are showing up in US equities. It began with large-caps, and now there are early signs it is spreading to small-caps as well as tech. The small-cap switch was turned on right after Donald Trump was elected … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 5, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 397.5k, down 73.5k. The FOMC meets next week. It is this year’s fourth meeting, and four more remain after this. The fed funds rate … Continued
With bulls latching on to every positive fundamental data, small-caps continue to build on breakout from three weeks ago. From the perspective of how they are acting and how they have outperformed their large-cap peers, small-caps are winning big. After … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 8, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 408.6k, down 37k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.97 percent) once again is hammering on three percent. On April 25, yields retreated after rising intraday … Continued