No one rang the bell when the longest bull in US stock market history came to an end last month. The drop was swift and decisive. Several oversold metrics are itching to get unwound. But markets are in panic mode. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.6k, up 57.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This follows a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, to a range of 100 to 125 … Continued
Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday. If there is any consolation in this, amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support. Some … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
Major US equity indices staged a massive reversal last Thursday, with more strength Friday. This probably bodes well for bulls near term. For this to translate into medium-term momentum, investors need to embrace risk-on. Real GDP growth has softened. Four … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
June’s stronger-than-expected payroll print has the potential to change the Fed’s interest-rate outlook for the remainder of the year. Markets still expect at least two 25-basis-point cuts this year, including one later this month. Should Chair Jay Powell wish to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the December 3-14 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (49.46) dropped to 47.05 intraday Wednesday before reversing to end the session up 4.5 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued