Feeble Rectangle Breakout Last Week, SPY Gives Out Signs Of Fatigue

With a feeble rectangle breakout and rejection at the upper end of a rising channel last week, SPY is giving out signs of fatigue. Things look good.  Even great, some might argue.  This Friday, the first print of 2Q18 GDP … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued

S&P 500 Breaks Out Of 2800, One More Hurdle Before Late-January High Is Tested

As 2Q earnings season got underway, the S&P 500 large cap index broke out of 2800.  If it were to rally toward its late-January all-time high, it has to first win over resistance around 2840. The S&P 500 (2809.55) faced … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape.  In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued

Signs Of Fatigue Showing Up On S&P 500

Large- and small-cap divergence continues.  Versus the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Large-caps continue to fall behind small-caps.  Not to mention tech.  The S&P 500 large cap index was … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued

SPY Breaks Out But May Need To Digest Recent Gains – Options Reflect Elevated Optimism

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 large cap index finally breaks out of a box.  Further building on it near term may prove difficult as the options market indicates investor sentiment is sanguine right now. S&P 500 stocks made progress last week.  After … Continued