CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued

Dec ’16 Trend Line Defended – Decent Odds Gold Recaptures Broken Support

Gold faced pressure after running into resistance six weeks ago.  The subsequent drop cost the metal long-term support at $1,300-plus.  Gold bugs were not ready to give in that easy, though.  They defended a rising trend line from December 2016.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (59.33) broke out from a late-January falling trend line, but building … Continued

Some Chinks In Tech’s Armor – XLK Credit Call Spread

Post-February 9 reversal, both the Nasdaq composite and the Nasdaq 100 index went on to surpass the late January highs.  Other indices such as the S&P 500 large cap index and the Dow Industrials could not match that feat.  The … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yield Still Trapped In L/T Channel – TLT As Trading Vehicle N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.2k, up 19.3k. On February 2, January’s private-sector average hourly earnings were reported, and they rose 2.89 percent year-over-year, to $26.74.  This was the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on.  Doves versus hawks.  At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued