The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday. The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued
Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September. Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year? The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 30, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials continue to reduce net shorts – currently lowest since September 23rd last year. They have reduced net shorts by 98 percent in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
S&P 500 retraces 161.8 percent Fib extension of Oct 07-Mar 09 decline Transports not in sync with Dow/S&P 500, having broken several support levels Having spent lots of buying power of late, SPX shows signs of fatigue; pullback odds rising … Continued
It is an understatement to say that trading in Treasury bonds was volatile last week – just check out the action on various yields. From intra-day low to high, the 10-year yield swung 20 basis points, but closed out the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 12, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, the 10-year yield had a lackluster week – essentially flat. Nothing could be further from … Continued
Market expectations for rate hike next year runs risk of disappointment With monetary quiver nearly empty, Fed very much focused on wealth effect Job even more difficult, given adverse effects of cheap money beginning to loom Markets are sending mixed … Continued