Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week?  The latter meets on 28-29.  For the most part, macro data … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions.  Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued

End-March short interest: Indices flat, lots of changes industry- and sector-wide

posted in: Equities | 0

Short interest as of the end of March was flat on an index level, but action was hot and heavy on an industry/sector level. On the NYSE, short interest was 15.68 billion, down from 15.69 billion two weeks ago.  On … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed!  Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros.  This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end.  For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month.  Consensus was for that … Continued

Peer into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator.  Net shorts went up 67 … Continued

Short interest dynamics between NYSE and Nasdaq, and in SMH and IBB

posted in: Equities | 0

NYSE short interest rises to match mid-Oct highs, diverges from Nasdaq Within Nasdaq, shorts aggressive in pure tech, but less so in biotech Relatively low short interest on IBB probably does not help longs It is getting a little difficult … Continued

Imminent (?) breakout retest on RUT probably validates bullish small-cap thesis

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps relative outperformer past several weeks Hard to make fundamental case, but technically RUT acts very well Ideal, and probable, scenario: RUT pulls back for successful retest of recent breakout There is something very interesting going on in the small-cap … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week!  In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week.  On … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week.  Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent.  And these traders, in agreement, … Continued