Stocks are selling off, but major indices are at/near crucial support, testing the will of the bulls. High-yield spreads are tightening. In Chart 1, the ICE BofAML US high yield BB effective yield is pitted against Moody’s seasoned AAA corporate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued
Major U.S. stock indices rallied to fresh new highs last week. Even small-caps, which until recently had been lagging their large-cap brethren, joined the party. With seasonality in their favor, will the bulls be able to build on this or … Continued
Amidst persistent volatility suppression, rays of hope are emerging for volatility bulls. From their perspective, spot VIX is showing some encouraging action. VIX remains oversold on nearly all timeframe. It has remained that way for a while. In less than … Continued
U.S. equity bulls regained momentum last week, but this also put near-term sentiment at/near complacency. Since rising to an all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8, the S&P 500 large cap index was bound by a falling trend line (Chart … Continued
The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate. The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short. What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued
From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent. Not much in a big scheme of things. It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Dips continue to get bought, even as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index, bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago. Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended … Continued