If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued
Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever. There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week. The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued
Investor sentiment continues to remain exuberant even as, for the first time in a while, there is a chink in the S&P 500’s armor. Investors Intelligence bulls this week jumped 2.3 points week-over-week to 62.3 percent. This was a third … Continued
XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued
U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 17, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 106.3k, down 86.3k. If Politico is to be believed, President Trump is leaning toward Jerome Powell, Fed governor, for the next Federal Reserve chair. … Continued
Are markets beginning to subtly have doubts about the White House-proposed tax cuts passing Congress? Large caps continue to trudge higher. The S&P 500 large cap index keeps rallying to one after another high. As overbought as it is – … Continued
Amidst persistent volatility suppression, rays of hope are emerging for volatility bulls. From their perspective, spot VIX is showing some encouraging action. VIX remains oversold on nearly all timeframe. It has remained that way for a while. In less than … Continued
Post-presidential election last November, U.S. small-caps sprung to life, going nearly parabolic in two separate spurts. President Trump’s promises to cut taxes, prune regulations and increase infrastructure spending helped improve investor sentiment. Small-caps inherently are domestically focused. The first rally … Continued