Stocks of major U.S. banks and brokers are behaving in a way that shorts are probably not very happy with. Should they treat this as a signal or noise? The top six have reported September-quarter results, and it is a … Continued
U.S. corporations have had their share of blame as relates to capital expenditures, wages, etc., but have done a commendable job when it comes to taking advantage of the prevailing low interest-rate environment. Corporate profits have come a long way. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 13, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Central bankers were probably busy scratching their heads this week. Despite trillions in quantitative easing and their valiant effort to push inflation above … Continued
Through Wednesday, three major U.S. banks have reported third-quarter results, and if there is one common theme, it is the top line. There is no growth. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported revenues of $23.5 billion, versus $25.1 billion last year. For … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
What exactly would Fed officials be focused on when they decide to hike – or not – rates? It is a fair question given the amount of variance in their message. On Tuesday evening, John Williams, president of the San … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Today is jobs day. At 8:30 later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the report card for September. A monthly ritual that markets more often than not await with abated breath. Particularly so this time around as the … Continued
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued