Amidst Range-Bound WTI Crude, Lesson From Hypothetical XLE Trade

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda!  What could have been $9.93 in profit in a hypothetical XLE trade is now only worth $1.83.  Culprit?  Trying to play it too cute plus greed. Since peaking on January 25 at $66.66/barrel, spot West Texas Intermediate … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.5k, down 82.5k. Three percent on the 10-year Treasury note is a closely watched level by many.  If it is surpassed, stops likely get … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Give Out Early Signs Of Fatigue – TLT Buy Write

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued

Amid Rout In Stocks And Some Signs Of Stability, SPY Short Put

It is a top.  But is this the top? All of a sudden, it is not a crazy question to ask.  The ferocity by which U.S. equities have dropped in recent sessions, one has to wonder if this marks a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet.  Yes, foreigners’ … Continued

Equity Bulls Put Foot Down Near Feb ’16 Trend Line

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday.  Those lows have now taken on significance.  Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued