From trade disputes to declining corporate profits to yield-curve inversion, there is no shortage of issues for worrywarts to worry about. From recent highs, major US equity indices have dropped in the mid- to high-single digits. Medium term, more downside … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent. This week, it … Continued
Appreciation in US home prices – or a lack thereof – tends to impact consumer psyche. Currently, prices are not that far away from record levels, but the rate of growth is in deceleration. If the trend persists, this has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
Bond bears put their foot down near 2.4 percent on the 10-year T-yield. In the best of circumstances, they are eyeing a test of broken support at 2.62 percent – if not, definitely 2.50 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.43 … Continued
There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities. Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week. Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult. Overbought … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three. Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued