First-quarter earnings are coming in strong, but stocks are stuck in a rut. There is room to rally near term, with tons of overhead resistance. One common complaint among the bulls is that US stocks of late have failed to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued
Recent inflation readings have firmed up, although remain subdued historically. As have inflation expectations. What happens with crude oil, which rallied big the past couple of years, is worth watching. Later today, the FOMC concludes its two-day meeting – the … Continued
For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term. After several quarters of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 462.1k, up 90.4k. Now what? The 10-year Treasury rate (2.96) crossed three percent this week – the first time this has happened since January … Continued
After rallies that lasted a little over two weeks, selling began on major US equity indices last week right at important resistance. This likely continues near term. US capacity utilization in March rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.3 percent year-over-year … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell … Continued
After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued
If investor/trader reaction last Friday to financials’ 1Q18 results is any indication, we are in for some interesting weeks ahead. First-quarter earnings season began in earnest last week. For 1Q18, the sell-side expects $35.63 in operating earnings from S&P 500 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, down 44.7k. Annual core CPI rose stronger-than-expected 2.12 percent in March. This was the first year-over-year reading with a two handle in a … Continued