The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Corporate bond issuance in May surged 74.5 percent month-over-month and 15.6 percent year-over-year to $205.8 billion. Of this, investment-grade was $177.1 billion and high-yield $28.7 billion. IG jumped 105.6 percent m/m and 21.8 percent y/y, while HY was down 9.8 … Continued
Chart 1 in yesterday’s post drew many e-mail responses, some of which were critical. Critical because the post used a trailing price to earnings (P/E) for the S&P 500 index, rather than forward. To refresh, the chart used a four-quarter … Continued
Many times in the past spot VIX spikes, but cannot hang on to the gains and reverses quickly. Chart 1 only goes back eight months, but this phenomenon goes back a lot longer. VIX just experienced one such spike reversal. … Continued
This week, May’s existing and new home sales data come out – on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In April, the former rose 1.7 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units, and has essentially gone sideways … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
It is not easy getting a handle on valuation dynamics. During good times, multiples rise to exorbitant levels, and the opposite happens when times are bad. The usual cycle of things. Come to think of it. At any time, value … Continued
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued
In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent. Not much. But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued