CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 2, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: There you go!  Again. Less than three months after instituting the first rate hike in nine years, Fed officials are behaving as if … Continued

Exiting XLE Long — With Small Profit

To say that energy stocks are back in favor will be an exaggeration, but they have perked up of late. Off the January 20th intra-day low, XLE, the SPDR Energy ETF, has rallied north of 16 percent.  That is in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed.  This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event.  No interest-rate decision … Continued

Enjoying Equity Rally While It Lasts

Stocks are rallying.  In fact, off the intra-day low last week, the S&P 500 index (1906.9) is already up 5.2 percent. Last Wednesday’s hammer reversal on the index looks similar to the ones on October 15, 2014 and August 24, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 19, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The International Monetary Fund lowers – again – its outlook for global economic growth this year.  Warning of bumpier rides, especially in the … Continued

Trying To Decipher Message From Stocks’ Horrible Start To Year

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued

Rally Odds Growing, But Upside Potential Probably Limited

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. stocks have gone 12 straight sessions without even a sliver of a bounce.  About time for a reprieve? Between the December 29th intra-day high and January 15th low, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials each lost 10.8 percent, the … Continued

For 2nd Time Past 13 Sessions, Put-To-Call Ratio Over One; Stocks Likely Get Help This Time

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last Friday, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio registered a reading of north of one.  This does not occur very often. With this, the 21-day moving average rose to 0.766, not that far away from the September 18th (2015) high of … Continued