The Russell 2000 closed Friday right at, or slightly past, crucial resistance. If bulls succeed in decisively take out this ceiling, risk-on sentiment can rise. Failure to do so can lead longs, who are sitting on handsome gains, to lock … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
The S&P 500 just notched a fresh high. Volatility is as good as dead. Under this calmness lies early signs of life. Volatility is quiet, even dead. VIX (13.11) continues to loiter around the bottom end of a one-year range … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent. … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 16-29 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In October last year, XLB (57.42) lost support just north of 56, which then repeatedly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 1-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (54.56) short interest fell to a seven-month low. Shorts probably feared a breakout at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points. This was expected. What was not expected was the dovish … Continued